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truther128

0xa660e6...e92b9d
#4023 overall · top 19.10%
Smart Score
40
Win Rate
80.6%
Total P&L
+$14.8K
Trade Count
170
Sharpe Ratio
-0.73
Sortino Ratio
-0.86
Max Drawdown
104.1%
ROI
36.4%
Profit Factor
1672.39
Kelly Fraction
0.806
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
039.8/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?SELL10.0¢19Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?SELL14.0¢1Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?SELL12.0¢1Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?SELL20.0¢10Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?BUY96.4¢258.3Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?BUY96.4¢141.7Mar 4
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?BUY14.0¢0.37Mar 4
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?BUY14.0¢88Mar 4
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?BUY14.0¢1.977Mar 4
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?BUY14.0¢1.442Mar 4
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?BUY14.0¢8.198Mar 4
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?BUY84.6¢30Mar 4
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?SELL95.6¢9Mar 4
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?BUY86.0¢9Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?BUY97.9¢400Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY67.5¢9.5Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?BUY84.0¢70Mar 4
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?BUY0.1¢3,000Mar 3
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?BUY0.1¢995.3Mar 3
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?BUY0.1¢1.471Mar 3

Analytics Showcase

Full analytics →
Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%11%< 10%9%10–20%5%20–30%7%30–50%50–70%16%70–80%13%80–90%36%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing39.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.19
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)36.2%
Win Consistency64.7%
Profit Factor1.03
Drawdown Resilience0.84
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.84
Weekly Sharpe est.0.64
Trading Activity170 trades · 16 active days
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$27,4214d profit12d loss
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Showcase profile — live & interactive · 52-week window

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