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P904endulum

0x6baaa7...9f4f80
#9263 overall · top 43.98%
Smart Score
23
Win Rate
40.0%
Total P&L
+$14
Trade Count
39
Sharpe Ratio
0.07
Sortino Ratio
0.11
Max Drawdown
570.0%
ROI
24.9%
Profit Factor
10.30
Kelly Fraction
0.361
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
022.8/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?SELL99.4¢1.31Mar 5
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?BUY99.5¢1.316Mar 5
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL99.7¢1.33Mar 5
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?BUY99.5¢1.236Mar 5
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?SELL98.2¢1.24Mar 5
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY99.8¢1.333Mar 5
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?BUY98.3¢1.241Mar 5
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?SELL99.6¢1.18Mar 5
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?BUY99.7¢1.183Mar 5
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL94.9¢1.41Mar 5
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY95.0¢1.411Mar 5
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL98.2¢1.27Mar 5
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY98.3¢1.272Mar 5
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?SELL99.8¢1.23Feb 28
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?BUY99.9¢1.231Feb 28
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?SELL95.1¢1.16Feb 28
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?BUY95.2¢1.166Feb 28
Will France win Eurovision 2026?SELL96.6¢1.34Feb 28
Will France win Eurovision 2026?BUY96.8¢1.343Feb 28
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?SELL99.5¢1.36Feb 28

Analytics Showcase

Full analytics →
Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%4%< 10%4%10–20%8%20–30%12%30–50%15%50–70%8%70–80%80–90%50%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing22.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.25
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)20.8%
Win Consistency32.0%
Profit Factor0.59
Drawdown Resilience0.48
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.48
Weekly Sharpe est.0.36

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