missed-by-apollo

0xc910c8...0634d0

Smart Score

Win Rate

21.8%

Total P&L

-$35

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.43

Sortino Ratio

3.49

Max Drawdown

666.7%

ROI

-7.2%

Profit Factor

0.84

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

015.5/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 11, 2026?	BUY	7.9¢	25.316	Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 10, 2026?	BUY	6.6¢	30.222	Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 12, 2026?	BUY	5.9¢	33.802	Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 15, 2026?	BUY	3.0¢	65.895	Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 14, 2026?	BUY	3.2¢	62.5	Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 13, 2026?	BUY	4.6¢	43.141	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	BUY	66.0¢	15.152	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?	BUY	82.0¢	12.195	Mar 5
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?	BUY	4.9¢	40.61	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	BUY	12.0¢	41.667	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	85.0¢	11.765	Mar 5
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates	BUY	8.2¢	24.418	Mar 3
Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	BUY	21.0¢	47.619	Mar 2
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in February?	BUY	21.0¢	23.81	Mar 2
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in February?	BUY	23.4¢	42.814	Mar 2
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	BUY	23.0¢	21.739	Mar 2
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?	BUY	8.0¢	25	Mar 2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	52.0¢	19.231	Mar 2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	BUY	7.0¢	28.571	Mar 2
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	SELL	99.3¢	38.35	Mar 1

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing15.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.85

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)14.1%

Win Consistency29.1%

Profit Factor0.40

Drawdown Resilience0.33

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.33

Weekly Sharpe est.0.25

Trading Activity60 trades · 17 active days

P&L Calendar

$3043d profit14d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue